There are a lot of unknowns about Apple's new tablet device, the iPad. Essentially, they announced the product with a vague release timeframe, but not many more details.
The major publishers have deals with the forthcoming iBookstore, which, if executed properly, is poised to be Apple's next big killer technology. But that's a big "if".
Right now, Apple's two big success stories are the iTunes Store and the App Store. The App Store makes it very easy for independent developers to design and submit apps to sell through the store. The iTunes Store is much, much more difficult for musicians to break into, and it's pretty much impossible for independent television producers or filmmakers to sell things there.
It's unclear how Apple plans to run the iBookstore, but early deals with major publishers imply it will resemble the iTunes Store with no mechanism for indie publishers to sell books in the store.
As a writer, I would love nothing more than for Apple to open up the doors to small publishers and new authors. They would, and I don't believe I'm exaggerating here, run the future of the publishing world. It would be nothing short of a revolution, and the Kindles and Sony Readers of the world wouldn't be able to compete.
I could see why Apple would want to keep tight control over the books sold in the store would help keep general quality high. Even in the App Store, in which each new app is reviewed and approved by Apple, there is no shortage of low-quality, low-brow, buggy apps. Opening up the doors to all publishers and writers invites a tidal wave of poorly-written, under-edited, sub-par books.
However, if the same five-star rating system used in iTunes and the App Store is applied to the iBookstore (and I see no reason it wouldn't be), new authors and small publishers with high-quality, innovative writers and content would be afforded the opportunity to rise to the top. It's happened again and again on the App Store. Through all the clutter, the gems rise to the tops of the charts. Small developers (or sometimes individuals) create successful businesses for themselves, and Apple revolutionized the way people program apps.
Here's my prediction: Apple will only sell books from the major publishers at first. What happens next is entirely up to the level of demand and interest from writers and indie publishers.
When Apple first launched the iPhone, there was no such thing as the App Store. Apple saw no need to open the platform to independent developers. Web-based apps, in the company's estimation, would be enough.
They certainly underestimated the enthusiasm from the developer community, which was extremely vocal about creating native applications on Apple's new phone. Many developers wrote apps that ran on hacked iPhones, and more and more users would "jailbreak" their iPhones to install some of those fantastic homebrew apps. A year later, based purely on the growing number of jailbroken iPhones and developer outcry, the App Store was introduced.
What happens after Apple launches the iBookstore is completely up to the indie publishers and self-publishing authors. If we're loud enough, and if we independently generate (and sell) enough high-quality books on the iPad through the App Store or other channels, Apple will let us in.
The last thing they want to do is open the iBookstore to indie publishers on the first day and have it turn into a wasteland of a few dismal titles. That won't look good on their new flagship product. They'll make us work for it, fight for it, and clamor for it.
Of course, it's easy to speculate about a product and service that haven't been released yet, and which we know very little about. But no matter what happens, the next year is going to be a very interesting and exciting one for the publishing world, electronic and print alike.
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