Will publishers take chances on new novelists again?

After writing yesterday's post on indie publishers and electronic bookstores, I began to think of the situation from a different angle.

In the analog world, publishers have all but given up on buying books from new or untested authors. The costs associated with printing, in combination with the low sales over the past few years, make it a very risky decision. Unless it's clear that a book is going to sell like crazy, or that movie rights could be sold, publishers are likely to pass. This is bad news for mid-market literary fiction authors hoping to get their first break.

Enter digital publishing. If Apple's iPad takes off the way the iPod and iPhone did, will publishers be willing to take chances on new novelists again? Digital editions reduce the risk to almost zero.

It would seem to make sense. Publishers could create digital-only editions of debut novels from new writers. If sales really started to pick up, the publisher could choose to print physical editions to sell in retailers, too. The waters could be tested and sales could be generated, simultaneously.

If played just right, I this new generation of electronic publishing could be as revolutionary as the movable type and Gutenberg press. The next few years are likely to be a really wonderful time for writers, publishers, and book lovers.

But that's only if it's played just right. This all assumes that publishers and electronic retailers are interested in fostering new talent and widening the variety of books available. It also assumes that consumers, specifically the ones that stopped purchasing physical books, will start paying for digital editions.

I think a lot of these questions will begin to find answers in the next twelve months as the technology arrives and publishers find their footing on this unfamiliar terrain. Whatever happens, it's going to be exciting.